{"id":1204,"date":"2025-01-15T14:00:01","date_gmt":"2025-01-15T07:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=1204"},"modified":"2025-01-15T14:00:01","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T07:00:01","slug":"gia-phan-bon-nam-2025-ky-vong-on-dinh-nho-nguon-cung-duoc-cung-co","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=1204","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u0103m 2025 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1edd ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u0103m 2025 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1edd ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2025 v\u1eabn ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024, nh\u1edd ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n cung \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n nh\u1edd t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc<\/p>\n

Theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c H\u1ea3i quan, trong n\u0103m 2024 c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea7n 1,73 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ean 709,91 tri\u1ec7u USD<\/span>, gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 411,1 USD<\/span>\/t\u1ea5n, t\u0103ng 11,7% v\u1ec1 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, t\u0103ng 9,4% v\u1ec1 kim ng\u1ea1ch. X\u00e9t v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi Campuchia, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Philippines n\u1ed5i l\u00ean l\u00e0 3 qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2024.<\/p>\n

Ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2024, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2025 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 cung – c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cung c\u1ea7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u vi\u00ean Tr\u1ea7n Th\u1ecb Hu\u1ebf – Vi\u1ec7n Kinh t\u1ebf – T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (H\u1ecdc Vi\u1ec7n T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh) cho bi\u1ebft, n\u0103m 2025, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung nh\u1edd n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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N\u0103m 2024, c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea7n 1,73 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i. \u1ea2nh: TL<\/p>\n

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“C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 \u0110\u1ea1m Ph\u00fa M\u1ef9, \u0110\u1ea1m C\u00e0 Mau v\u00e0 DAP<\/a> \u0110\u00ecnh V\u0169 \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t, n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m” – b\u00e0 Tr\u1ea7n Th\u1ecb Hu\u1ebf d\u1eabn ch\u1ee9ng. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng t\u1ed1t nhu c\u1ea7u n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. C\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u1ef1 do (FTA) nh\u01b0 RCEP v\u00e0 EVFTA ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 nh\u01b0 Nga, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Indonesia. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 gi\u00fap b\u1ed5 sung ngu\u1ed3n cung m\u00e0 c\u00f2n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn do khan hi\u1ebfm c\u1ee5c b\u1ed9.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i Ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n ure t\u0103ng 6% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2024 – 2028. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Campuchia, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng \u0111ang m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng sang ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, n\u01a1i c\u00f3 c\u00e1c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m cao h\u01a1n.
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Kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng v\u1eady, nhu c\u1ea7u gia t\u0103ng nh\u1edd m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c v\u00e0 \u00e1p c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2025 c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

Theo \u0111\u00f3, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u1eefu c\u01a1 t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n h\u00f3a h\u1ecdc to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan nh\u01b0 El Ni\u00f1o v\u00e0 La Ni\u00f1a c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

“Theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2025 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea1t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i cung – c\u1ea7u t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024. T\u1ed5ng cung d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 11,5 – 12 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, trong khi nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 10 – 10,5 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n trong qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ngu\u1ed3n cung v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam” – b\u00e0 Hu\u1ebf nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 kho\u1ea3ng 3 – 5%<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u0103m 2025, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho hay, gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n s\u1ebd t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u kho\u1ea3ng 3 – 5%, c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n

B\u00e0 Tr\u1ea7n Th\u1ecb Hu\u1ebf cho bi\u1ebft th\u00eam, gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024, nh\u1edd ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u0103m 2025 t\u0103ng 3-5%. \u1ea2nh: TL<\/p>\n

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Tuy nhi\u00ean, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh, v\u00e0 amoniac – c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng, chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u0169ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb.<\/p>\n

Nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, Pakistan v\u00e0 Brazil ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n. N\u1ebfu nhu c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u1ea1nh tranh ngu\u1ed3n cung, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba t\u0103ng theo.<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed logistics, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND<\/span> so v\u1edbi USD<\/a> v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ea1nh kh\u00e1c, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n

\u201cM\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u1ecbu nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9, trong kho\u1ea3ng 3-5% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m 2024. M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o s\u1ee9c c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba\u201d – b\u00e0 Hu\u1ebf ph\u00e2n t\u00edch.<\/p>\n

M\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y, C\u00f4ng ty Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n R\u1ed3ng Vi\u1ec7t c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn g\u1ed9p ng\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u0103m 2025 t\u0103ng nh\u1edd gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3m nhanh h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u ra c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba.\/.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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T\u1eeb 1\/7\/2025, m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n ch\u1ecbu thu\u1ebf gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng 5% s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0: Ho\u00e0n thu\u1ebf nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o, gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, n\u1edbi r\u1ed9ng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn g\u1ed9p, g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn; m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 5% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh gi\u1eefa h\u00e0ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n

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Nam Kh\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

TBTCVN<\/a><\/p>\n

– 11:50 15\/01\/2025<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n