<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/image.vietstock.vn\/2025\/12\/29\/du-bao-nguon-cung-lua-gao-2026-1.jpg\")
<\/p>\nH\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u0103ng l\u00ean 215,6 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, cao nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn nay. (\u1ea2nh: THX\/TTXVN)<\/p>\n
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\n<\/table>\n H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u0103ng l\u00ean 215,6 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, cao nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn nay. Ri\u00eang \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn trong m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho n\u00e0y, nh\u1edd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch mua d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef m\u1ea1nh tay v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 m\u00f9a li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp b\u1ed9i thu.<\/p>\n T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef\/ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i kho\u1ea3ng 38,7%, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u201cd\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba an to\u00e0n\u201d r\u1ea5t cao c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ch\u00ednh, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y c\u0169ng t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 32%, cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung \u1ee9ng ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o trong trung h\u1ea1n. Ch\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac d\u01b0 cung – t\u1ed3n kho l\u1edbn n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 mang t\u00ednh h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n theo m\u00f9a v\u1ee5.<\/p>\n N\u0103m 2025 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a FAO (FARPI) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 20% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ri\u00eang th\u00e1ng 11 gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam 1,5%.<\/p>\n Gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o tr\u1eafng 5% t\u1ea5m c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 – m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng tham chi\u1ebfu quan tr\u1ecdng – \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng kho\u1ea3ng 338 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 12, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o c\u00f9ng lo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Th\u00e1i Lan v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam tuy v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu s\u1ee9c \u00e9p ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ee9c c\u1ea1nh tranh.<\/p>\n Theo c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n tin th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a S&P Global Platts, \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u01b0a k\u1ebft th\u00fac, khi ngu\u1ed3n cung m\u1edbi t\u1eeb \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tung ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua v\u1eabn th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n Nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 \u201c\u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d<\/p>\n Vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 trong t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a 2025-2026 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng \u1edf quy m\u00f4 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n n\u1eb1m \u1edf ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ebfn \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed5i vai t\u1eeb \u201cng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft\u201d sang \u201cng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1.\u201d<\/p>\n Vi\u1ec7c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 t\u1eebng \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2022-2023 \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng v\u00e0 d\u1ee1 b\u1ecf d\u1ea7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2024 \u0111ang c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i: k\u00e9o gi\u00e1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 x\u1ea3 b\u1edbt l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed3n kho th\u00f4ng qua Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh B\u00e1n h\u00e0ng tr\u00ean Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1edf (OMSS) trong n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 then ch\u1ed1t. N\u1ebfu OMSS \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3n nh\u1eadn th\u00eam h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n g\u1ea1o, gia t\u0103ng s\u1ee9c \u00e9p l\u00ean gi\u00e1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7.<\/p>\n Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ed3ng rupee c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng suy y\u1ebfu, l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a g\u1ea1o \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i, gi\u00fap n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Ngu\u1ed3n cung gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb t\u1eeb \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111ang t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i g\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u Phi ph\u00eda Nam Sahara, Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 Nam \u00c1 \u0111ang t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng mua g\u1ea1o \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 nh\u1edd gi\u00e1 c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n Ch\u00e2u Phi ph\u00eda Nam Sahara ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i g\u1ea1o, chi\u1ebfm g\u1ea7n 1\/3 t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. FAO d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 19,5 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n trong n\u0103m 2025, khi ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba v\u1eabn h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 Indonesia (In-\u0111\u00f4-n\u00ea-xi-a) hay Philippines \u0111ang th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1ea1nh tranh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a m\u1ea1nh gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng kh\u00e1c v\u00e0o th\u1ebf kh\u00f3. Th\u00e1i Lan: Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea1o trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2024-2025 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh xu\u1ed1ng kho\u1ea3ng 7,5 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, do c\u1ea1nh tranh gi\u00e1 kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t; Vi\u1ec7t Nam: D\u00f9 v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb th\u1ebf nh\u1edd g\u1ea1o ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac trung – cao c\u1ea5p, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u01b0 cung; Pakistan, Myanmar: Bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i h\u1ea1 gi\u00e1 ch\u00e0o b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n \u1edf c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/image.vietstock.vn\/2025\/12\/29\/du-bao-nguon-cung-lua-gao-2026.jpg\")
<\/p>\nN\u00f4ng d\u00e2n t\u00e1ch v\u1ecf tr\u1ea5u kh\u1ecfi h\u1ea1t g\u1ea1o \u1edf Amritsar (\u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9). (\u1ea2nh: AFP\/TTXVN)<\/p>\n
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\n<\/table>\n Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t h\u00f3a s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o g\u1ea1o th\u01a1m, g\u1ea1o \u0111\u1eb7c s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao.<\/p>\n Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng n\u0103m 2026: D\u01b0 cung k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, gi\u00e1 kh\u00f3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh<\/p>\n C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u01b0 cung nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd k\u00e9o d\u00e0i sang n\u0103m 2026. Gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c trong \u00edt nh\u1ea5t qu\u00fd 1\/2026, tr\u1eeb khi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n \u00d4ng Samarendu Mohanty, chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea5p cao t\u1eebng l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u L\u00faa g\u1ea1o Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, cho r\u1eb1ng \u201cxu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00ec \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111ang s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u g\u1ea1o. Gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1i \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam 10-15% do ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u01b0 th\u1eeba v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i y\u1ebfu.\u201d<\/p>\n \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1eef vai tr\u00f2 \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ef1a gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, trong khi c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0 OMSS c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y s\u1ebd mang t\u00ednh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. D\u00f9 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng ngu\u1ed3n cung r\u1ea5t t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, song th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea1o v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro: Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu: N\u1eafng n\u00f3ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc, El Ni\u00f1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t; Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i: C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1; H\u1eadu c\u1ea7n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb: T\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed.<\/p>\n Nh\u00ecn chung, giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2025-2026 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 v\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2 trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng r\u00f5 n\u00e9t. Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng – \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c – s\u1ebd h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1eb7t ra y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ea5p thi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, n\u00e2ng cao gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p>\n Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 m\u1edbi, n\u01a1i quy m\u00f4, chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch – h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft – tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m t\u1edbi.\/.<\/p>\n Ng\u1ecdc Th\u00fay<\/p>\n Vietnamplus<\/a><\/p>\n– 07:46 29\/12\/2025<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n | |
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