Gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00ec chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran, chuy\u00ean gia c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ngu\u1ed3n cung<\/p>\n
Lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ngu\u1ed3n cung ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9, Israel v\u00e0 Iran lan r\u1ed9ng, g\u00e2y gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1eeb V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 – m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng trung t\u00e2m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. <\/p>\n
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Kho\u1ea3ng 1\/3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ur\u00ea xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u – lo\u1ea1i ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n nit\u01a1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t – \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0, theo \u00f4ng Josh Linville, Chuy\u00ean gia h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u1ea1i StoneX. 3 trong s\u1ed1 10 nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi g\u1ed3m Qatar, \u1ea2-r\u1eadp Saudi v\u00e0 Iran g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ecb “m\u1eafc k\u1eb9t” ph\u00eda sau eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, t\u1ea1o ra k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n. <\/p>\n
\u00d4ng Linville cho bi\u1ebft nhu c\u1ea7u theo m\u00f9a t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Australia c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh tr\u1edf n\u00ean nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n. \u201cKh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra. Th\u1ef1c ra kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ed1t, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t\u201d, \u00f4ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh. <\/p>\n
Theo c\u00f4ng ty theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Argus, gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea giao d\u1ecbch b\u1eb1ng s\u00e0 lan t\u1ea1i New Orleans – m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thanh kho\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t – \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng th\u00eam 50-80 USD\/t\u1ea5n l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 520-550 USD\/t\u1ea5n trong ng\u00e0y 02\/03.<\/p>\n
\u00d4ng Linville cho bi\u1ebft c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 \u201cm\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, m\u1ed9t n\u1ed7i lo c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng\u201d m\u1edbi khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 \u201cho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf\u201d. <\/p>\n
V\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia n\u00e0y cho bi\u1ebft: \u201cC\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia \u0111ang n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i nhi\u1ec1u tu\u1ea7n ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y. N\u1ebfu nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o l\u1ecbch n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, trong v\u00f2ng b\u1ed1n tu\u1ea7n n\u1eefa ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u00f3n ph\u00e2n m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1edf B\u1eafc b\u00e1n c\u1ea7u. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c t\u00e0u h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111i qua Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ngay h\u00f4m nay th\u00ec ch\u00fang s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ecbp\u201d.<\/p>\n
Khu v\u1ef1c V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 c\u0169ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t v\u00e0 amoniac, nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n. <\/p>\n
\u00d4ng Dennis Voznesenski, nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1i Commonwealth Bank, cho bi\u1ebft \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u0103ng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o\u201d, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i. <\/p>\n
\u00d4ng Voznesenski cho r\u1eb1ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f2n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m Nga xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Ukraine trong n\u0103m 2022, khi gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u0169ng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. Khi \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c c\u0169ng t\u0103ng v\u00ec Ukraine l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n
\u00d4ng n\u00f3i: \u201cV\u00ec Iran ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u00faa m\u00ec, n\u00ean xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a gi\u00e1 n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 \u0111i ngang thay v\u00ec t\u0103ng\u201d. <\/p>\n
\u201c\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1ecb b\u00f3p ngh\u1eb9t v\u00ec doanh thu kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng chi ph\u00ed l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng\u201d.<\/p>\n
N\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i kh\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, \u00f4ng Linville cho bi\u1ebft. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n s\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m. <\/p>\n
V\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia n\u00e0y cho r\u1eb1ng n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i chuy\u1ec3n sang tr\u1ed3ng c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea7n \u00edt nit\u01a1 h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n
T\u1ea1i Australia, d\u00f9 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u1ea7n cho v\u1ee5 gieo tr\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua tr\u01b0\u1edbc, n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00ecm mua ur\u00ea \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f3n cho c\u00e2y ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 9, theo \u00f4ng Stephen Annells, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ng\u00e0nh Fertilizer Australia. <\/p>\n
Theo Argus, d\u1eabn d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, Australia \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u 64% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ur\u00ea t\u1eeb \u1ea2-r\u1eadp Saudi, Qatar, C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c Arab Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t (UAE), Bahrain v\u00e0 Oman trong n\u0103m 2025.<\/p>\n
\u00d4ng Annells cho bi\u1ebft nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 l\u1eddi nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ec5 t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Australia. <\/p>\n
\u201cAustralia ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u. N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u1eb9p v\u00e0 suy gi\u1ea3m trong 20 n\u0103m qua. V\u00ec v\u1eady ch\u00fang t\u00f4i th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0y – Australia r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf\u201d.<\/p>\n