{"id":2205,"date":"2026-03-12T14:22:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T07:22:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=2205"},"modified":"2026-03-12T14:22:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T07:22:02","slug":"gia-ure-tang-vot-vi-thien-nga-den-doanh-nghiep-phan-bon-chiu-tac-dong-ra-sao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=2205","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00ec \u201cthi\u00ean nga \u0111en\u201d, doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ra sao?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00ec \u201cthi\u00ean nga \u0111en\u201d, doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ra sao?<\/p>\n

Kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfm chi ph\u00ed l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ng\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1m (ur\u00ea). Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed neo theo gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi leo thang theo hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u201cthi\u00ean nga \u0111en\u201d t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, v\u00ec th\u1ebf, khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. <\/p>\n

Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u1edf V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 l\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng t\u1edbi 1\/3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u00e0 20% nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Khi Iran tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an to\u00e0n cho c\u00e1c t\u00e0u h\u00e0ng \u0111i qua, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c lan r\u1ed9ng. <\/p>\n

Theo Chris t\u1eeb Lawson CRU, gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ur\u00ea l\u1edbn \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 13%, l\u00ean 550 USD\/t\u1ea5n t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 485-490 USD\/t\u1ea5n. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng ty theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Argus, gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean s\u00e0 lan t\u1ea1i New Orleans – th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng giao d\u1ecbch l\u1edbn v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng l\u00e0m gi\u00e1 tham chi\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng th\u00eam 50-80 USD m\u1ed7i t\u1ea5n ng\u1eafn, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 907 kg, l\u00ean 520-550 USD trong<\/span> ng\u00e0y 1\/3, ch\u1ec9 1 ng\u00e0y sau khi chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u1edf Iran n\u1ed5 ra. Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ng\u00e0y 11\/3, gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang r\u01a1i v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 647.5 USD\/t\u1ea5n, t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 65% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m. <\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t n\u0103m kinh doanh kh\u1edfi s\u1eafc. Theo Global Growth Insight, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n kho\u1ea3ng 3%, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. CTCK ABS<\/a> th\u00ec cho r\u1eb1ng, doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u01b0 Ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n C\u00e0 Mau (HOSE<\/a>: DCM<\/a>) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, nh\u1edd k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3m so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3. <\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng \u201cthi\u00ean nga \u0111en\u201d xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed leo thang, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n s\u1eafp t\u1edbi tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

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L\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c<\/p>\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u1eeb Agromonitor, gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea trong n\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, r\u01a1i v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 660,000 – 690,000 \u0111\u1ed3ng\/bao 50 kg, t\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 12 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng\/t\u1ea5n. <\/p>\n

Suy ngh\u0129 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh s\u1ebd l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1m, n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt l\u00e0 DCM<\/span> v\u00e0 DPM<\/a> (\u0110\u1ea1m Ph\u00fa M\u1ef9). Gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u0103ng cao \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 doanh thu v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a 2 \u00f4ng l\u1edbn. Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 2 c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng phi\u00ean t\u0103ng tr\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp sau khi th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u1ed5 ra (28\/2).<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e2y ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a DPM<\/span> v\u00e0 DCM<\/span> ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 60%), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua t\u1eeb PV GAS<\/a> theo c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng cung c\u1ea5p d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111ang t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a 2 \u00f4ng l\u1edbn s\u1ebd ph\u00ecnh to. H\u01a1n th\u1ebf n\u1eefa, m\u1ed9t l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a DCM<\/span> t\u1eebng chia s\u1ebb v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed l\u00ean gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea trong n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u0110\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a, chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p xung \u0111\u1ed9t h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111\u1ea7u ra th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lao d\u1ed1c, kho\u1ea3n chi ph\u00ed neo l\u1ea1i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh.<\/p>\n

Chia s\u1ebb v\u1edbi truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 Ph\u00f9ng H\u00e0, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i Ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n Vi\u1ec7t Nam, cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f2n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o c\u1ee5c di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz. Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ur\u00ea l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 20 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n cung \u1ee9ng m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 amoniac, l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh\u2026 <\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng n\u1ed5 ra. Trung Qu\u1ed1c – m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi – \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng si\u1ebft h\u1ea1n ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u n\u0103m 2026, nh\u1eb1m \u01b0u ti\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. T\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i thu h\u1eb9p c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t do \u0111\u1ee9t g\u00e3y ngu\u1ed3n cung kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb t\u1eeb Nga. <\/p>\n

Gi\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o, m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh h\u1ebft nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1eeb Morningstar, k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n l\u00e2n t\u0103ng th\u00eam 50% l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2022 – th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5 ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t Nga – Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh theo c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf m\u1edf. M\u1ecdi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc – theo ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 H\u00e0. <\/p>\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady, b\u1ee9c tranh kinh doanh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u1eabn c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u00e1ng, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n nh\u1edd lu\u1eadt thu\u1ebf VAT cho ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2025. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, DCM<\/span> c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf khi \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c danh m\u1ee5c kinh doanh, v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p l\u1edbn t\u1eeb m\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n h\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p NPK, thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ur\u00ea.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00e2u An<\/a><\/p>\n

FILI<\/a><\/p>\n

– 13:04 12\/03\/2026<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n