{"id":2259,"date":"2026-04-01T11:29:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T04:29:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=2259"},"modified":"2026-04-01T11:29:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T04:29:42","slug":"khong-chi-dau-mo-nguon-cung-hang-loat-hang-hoa-thiet-yeu-cung-bi-gian-doan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=2259","title":{"rendered":"Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, ngu\u1ed3n cung h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu c\u0169ng b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, ngu\u1ed3n cung h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu c\u0169ng b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9-Israel v\u00e0 Iran l\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang lan r\u1ed9ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n

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T\u1eeb nh\u1ef1a c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i \u1ea2 r\u1eadp Saudi v\u00e0 Oman, \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb Brazil hay kh\u00ed helium t\u1eeb Qatar, xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, ngu\u1ed3n cung ho\u1eb7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

M\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o th\u1eddi gian k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn. M\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, s\u00e2n bay v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, qua \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c. <\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng, trong khi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Iran tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i t\u1ea1i V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0.<\/p>\n

Trong th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y, chi ph\u00ed t\u0103ng cao c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n sang ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng khi doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. <\/p>\n

\u201cL\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed1i lo l\u1edbn khi chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh t\u0103ng l\u00ean\u201d, \u00f4ng Chris O\u2019Keefe – Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ki\u00eam qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c t\u1ea1i Logan Capital Management – cho bi\u1ebft. \u201cT\u00fai ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd b\u1ecb si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t\u201d, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i.<\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn:<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: Trading Economics<\/p>\n

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D\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u0103ng s\u1ed1c<\/span><\/p>\n

Ng\u00e0y 28\/2\/2026, M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1edf Iran, ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb Chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh. Iran \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng khu v\u1ef1c, l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. <\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u WTI c\u00f3 l\u00fac t\u0103ng l\u00ean 110 USD\/th\u00f9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi quay \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t. T\u00ednh t\u1edbi ng\u00e0y 20\/3, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1edf m\u1ee9c 95 USD\/th\u00f9ng, t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 40% trong 1 th\u00e1ng qua. Goldman Sachs nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh, \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n, m\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ngu\u1ed3n cung k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u WTI<\/span><\/p>\n


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Trong ng\u00e0y 20\/3, gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean Dutch TTF<\/a> – \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tham chi\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u0103ng 35%, l\u00ean 74 Euro\/MWh, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 61 Euro\/MWh. Gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 90% trong 1 th\u00e1ng qua v\u00e0 t\u0103ng 115% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m. <\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n ur\u00ea v\u00e0 l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh<\/span><\/p>\n

Kho\u1ea3ng 1\/3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ur\u00ea giao d\u1ecbch to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u – lo\u1ea1i ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1m ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t – th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz. M\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, do ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0m nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u. <\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111ang x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u00fang th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho v\u1ee5 gieo tr\u1ed3ng m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n. Gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 35% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi chi\u1ebfn tranh n\u1ed5 ra. T\u00ednh t\u1edbi ng\u00e0y 19\/3, gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n ur\u00ea t\u0103ng l\u00ean 616 USD\/t\u1ea5n, t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 33% trong 1 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 60% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n ur\u00ea<\/span><\/p>\n


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L\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh – s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kh\u00ed – c\u0169ng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00e1c. G\u1ea7n 50% ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n b\u1ecb \u201cm\u1eafc k\u1eb9t\u201d ph\u00eda V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, theo CRU Group. <\/p>\n

Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xu\u1ea5t sang Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Indonesia \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn niken, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u00e2u Phi c\u0169ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

\u201cM\u1ea5t ngu\u1ed3n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0nh n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c\u201d, \u00f4ng Wayne Winegarden – nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i Pacific Research Institute – nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh. <\/p>\n

T\u00ednh t\u1edbi ng\u00e0y 19\/3, gi\u00e1 l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh t\u0103ng l\u00ean 4,716 Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7\/t\u1ea5n, t\u0103ng 23% trong 1 th\u00e1ng qua v\u00e0 g\u1ea7n 96% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh<\/span><\/p>\n


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Ethanol v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng <\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 b\u00e1m s\u00e1t \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng theo c\u00e1ch d\u1ec5 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i Brazil – n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u00eda \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi – m\u00eda c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1eb7c ethanol (nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u cho xe). Khi gi\u00e1 ethanol t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y th\u01b0\u1eddng chuy\u1ec3n sang s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. <\/p>\n

Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eafp l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i. Gi\u00e1 ethanol \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 10% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y Brazil chuy\u1ec3n nhi\u1ec1u m\u00eda sang s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u trong v\u1ee5 thu ho\u1ea1ch s\u1eafp t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00ean s\u00e0n Intercontinental Exchange \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 1 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t theo gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. <\/p>\n

Nh\u00f4m<\/span><\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 nh\u00f4m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh g\u1ea7n 4 n\u0103m l\u00e0 3,340 USD\/t\u1ea5n, khi ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n. Gi\u00e1 kim lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 l\u00fac t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 10% trong 1 th\u00e1ng qua, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t c\u00f2n 7%. <\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra sau khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y luy\u1ec7n nh\u00f4m l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i Qatar v\u00e0 Bahrain ng\u1eebng giao h\u00e0ng, bu\u1ed9c ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua ph\u1ea3i t\u00ecm ngu\u1ed3n thay th\u1ebf t\u1eeb ch\u00e2u \u00c1. Theo Vi\u1ec7n Nh\u00f4m Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, khu v\u1ef1c V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 8% ngu\u1ed3n cung nh\u00f4m to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u00f4m t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o t\u1eeb d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t, nh\u01b0ng nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u qua \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n – ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, n\u01a1i hi\u1ec7n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ecb phong t\u1ecfa. <\/p>\n

Nh\u00f4m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i trong nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m nh\u01b0 m\u00e1y bay, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2y \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 lon \u0111\u1ed3 u\u1ed1ng. Do \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lan sang chi ph\u00ed ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

V\u0169 H\u1ea1o<\/a><\/p>\n

FILI<\/a><\/p>\n

– 10:00 01\/04\/2026<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n