{"id":2440,"date":"2026-05-26T11:26:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=2440"},"modified":"2026-05-26T11:26:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:26:13","slug":"cac-tap-doan-phan-bon-cat-giam-san-luong-vi-thieu-nguon-cung-luu-huynh-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=2440","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00ec thi\u1ebfu ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n<\/p>\n

\n

C\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00ec thi\u1ebfu ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh xung \u0111\u1ed9t t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng v\u00e0 l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 nguy c\u01a1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, tuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfm vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng trong th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n phosphate – lo\u1ea1i ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i cho c\u00e1c c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 ng\u00f4, \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng, l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u c\u1ecd.<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh quanh Hormuz ban \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u th\u00f4, nh\u01b0ng gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ngu\u1ed3n cung ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n\u201d, \u00f4ng Faris Derrij, CEO OCP Nutricrops – c\u00f4ng ty con c\u1ee7a OCP Group, nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u phosphate l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, cho bi\u1ebft. <\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 Iran b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2, kho\u1ea3ng 50% th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y. Vi\u1ec7c tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan sang th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n, khi\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung b\u1ecb th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ngh\u00e8o, \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n phosphate s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng do gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi. <\/p>\n

Ph\u1ed1t pho l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong ba d\u01b0\u1ee1ng ch\u1ea5t \u0111a l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi Nit\u01a1 v\u00e0 Kali. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng phosphate v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 trong tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t, do nhu c\u1ea7u l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn kim lo\u1ea1i ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t pin.<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh ngu\u1ed3n cung phosphate r\u1ea5t nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng\u201d, \u00f4ng Chris Lawson, Ph\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch th\u00f4ng tin th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1i h\u00e3ng t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n CRU, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u201cH\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 m\u1ecdi ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u00f9ng l\u00fac”.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 phosphate t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb khi chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 Iran n\u1ed5 ra<\/span><\/p>\n


\n \"\"<\/td>\n


\n <\/tr>\n


\n <\/tbody>\n


\n<\/table>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Mosaic, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u00e3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng phosphate t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Brazil do chi ph\u00ed l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00e0m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, OCP c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng khi \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh l\u1ecbch b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y, d\u00f9 v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec t\u1ed3n kho chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

\u201cL\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed3n kho hi\u1ec7n cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang t\u00f4i duy tr\u00ec s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1edbi h\u1ebft th\u00e1ng 7 v\u00e0 xa h\u01a1n n\u1eefa\u201d, \u00f4ng Faris Derrij cho bi\u1ebft. <\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ngu\u1ed3n cung b\u1ecb si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1m ng\u1eebng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ph\u00e2n phosphate ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t \u00edt nh\u1ea5t t\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 8, c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u00edch tr\u1eef. \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf th\u1ea7u nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1edbi 1.6 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n ph\u00e2n phosphate, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 1.3 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n DAP<\/a> – m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111\u1ea5u th\u1ea7u \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb. <\/p>\n

\u1ede chi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n cung, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i \u1ea2-r\u1eadp Saudi nh\u01b0 Ma\u2019aden v\u00e0 Sabic \u0111ang t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch duy tr\u00ec xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u b\u1eb1ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ed9 t\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ea3ng Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf. Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo CRU, kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda do gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n quanh eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u0110\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ee7 l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh\u201d, \u00f4ng Christian Wendel, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u00f4ng ty th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n Hexagon Group, cho bi\u1ebft. <\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh t\u1eebng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng 150-180 USD\/t\u1ea5n c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e2y m\u1ed9t n\u0103m, hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 850-900 USD\/t\u1ea5n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfn s\u00e1t m\u1ed1c 1,000 USD\/t\u1ea5n.<\/p>\n

Ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u, hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t phosphate c\u0169ng \u0111ang b\u1ecb b\u00e0o m\u00f2n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. \u201c\u0110\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n h\u1ee3p l\u00fd khi gi\u00e1 l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o qu\u00e1 \u0111\u1eaft\u201d, \u00f4ng Willis Thomas, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u1ea1i CRU, cho bi\u1ebft. \u201cNgay t\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c, bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn phosphate \u0111\u00e3 \u00e2m ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec chi ph\u00ed nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u – ch\u01b0a t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn”.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m Nit\u01a1 nh\u01b0 ph\u00e2n ur\u00ea v\u00e0 ammonia, khi kho\u1ea3ng 30% th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ammonia to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng phosphate c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u, ngay c\u1ea3 khi tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i, do ngu\u1ed3n cung mang t\u00ednh t\u1eadp trung cao v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o d\u00f2ng l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7n Morocco v\u00e0 T\u00e2y Sahara \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e1 phosphate to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u – nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u1eed l\u00fd b\u1eb1ng axit sulfuric \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng khi\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean d\u1ec5 t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u. <\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, ng\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111ang d\u1ea7n d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n sang c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u00edt ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c h\u01a1n v\u00e0o l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh v\u00e0 ammonia, nh\u01b0 triple superphosphate (TSP). OCP cho bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t TSP trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m qua, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u01b0u hu\u1ef3nh thay th\u1ebf nh\u01b0 pyrite v\u00e0 pyrrhotite – s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 t\u1eeb qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh luy\u1ec7n kim.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 \u0111ang t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Theo \u00f4ng Chris Vlachopoulos t\u1eeb ICIS, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia gi\u00e0u v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ngu\u1ed3n cung, trong khi nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 b\u1ecb \u201c\u0111\u1ea9y ra kh\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d do chi ph\u00ed qu\u00e1 cao. <\/p>\n

\u201cC\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111ang d\u1ea7n s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5\u201d, \u00f4ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, nhi\u1ec1u n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n mua ho\u1eb7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t trong c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 m\u00f9a t\u1edbi. <\/p>\n

\u201cN\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t d\u01b0\u1ee1ng ch\u1ea5t b\u1ecb thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t, n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3\u201d, \u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

Theo \u00f4ng Christian Wendel, h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n r\u1ea5t s\u1edbm. \u201cCh\u00fang t\u00f4i tin r\u1eb1ng ngay trong n\u0103m t\u1edbi s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng v\u1ee5 m\u00f9a nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n\u201d, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i. \u201cTrong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n x\u1ea5u, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n t\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c do kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 ngu\u1ed3n cung ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c\u201d. <\/p>\n

V\u0169 H\u1ea1o<\/a><\/p>\n

FILI<\/a><\/p>\n

– 09:55 26\/05\/2026<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n