{"id":835,"date":"2024-08-16T17:49:07","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T10:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=835"},"modified":"2024-08-16T17:49:07","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T10:49:07","slug":"rui-ro-tu-cac-hien-tuong-thoi-tiet-cuc-doan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hoanongteva.com\/?p=835","title":{"rendered":"R\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan"},"content":{"rendered":"

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R\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a di\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024, tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi cho c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi 10 r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong 2 n\u0103m v\u00e0 10 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o AI t\u1edbi \u0111\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea7u trong c\u1ea3 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: World Economic Forum<\/p>\n

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Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t<\/p>\n

Theo WMO (World Meteorological Organization), ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u00e0 v\u00f9ng ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu n\u0103m 2023. Nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 1961 t\u1edbi nay, cao h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, trong th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Philipines, Th\u00e1i Lan, Campuchia, Myanmar ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1edbi nay, kho\u1ea3ng 42 \u0111\u1ed9 C<\/a>, c\u00f3 v\u00f9ng l\u00ean t\u1edbi 45 \u0111\u1ed9 C<\/span>. C\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c di\u1ec5n ra t\u1eeb nay t\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2024.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: Vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 X\u00e3 h\u1ed9i Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf<\/p>\n

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Chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 60% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 g\u1ea1o, qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng ho\u1eb7c m\u01b0a nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf t\u1edbi m\u00f9a m\u00e0ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c. V\u00ec v\u1eady, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn t\u1edbi an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

Vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a G\u1ea1o v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1<\/p>\n

Kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc khu v\u1ef1c Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u hay Ch\u00e2u M\u1ef9, g\u1ea1o l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c\u00a0 \u00a0tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 70% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng caloric \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 36% t\u1ed5ng chi ph\u00ed l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p th\u01b0\u1eddng chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n cho l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 d\u1ec5 t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01a1n khi gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c c\u00e0ng quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: ADB<\/p>\n

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El Nino \u0111ang t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn l\u00ean gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: Bloomberg<\/p>\n

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Gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o Th\u00e1i Lan t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 467 USD\/t\u1ea5n (t\u1ea5n) v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2022 l\u00ean 660 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024, t\u0103ng 41.3%, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2008. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 613 USD\/t\u1ea5n trong th\u00e1ng 3, gi\u00e1 v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n 29% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2023.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh trong h\u01a1n 1 n\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y \u0111ang t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn l\u00ean l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc trong khu v\u1ef1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1<\/p>\n


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Ngu\u1ed3n: ADB<\/p>\n

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D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1edbi an sinh v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc trong khu v\u1ef1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nhi\u1ec1u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\u00a0 \u1ea5m xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf cao nh\u01b0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u2026 Th\u00e1ng 7\/2023, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ea5m xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea1o nh\u1eb1m \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. L\u1ec7nh c\u1ea5m n\u00e0y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gia h\u1ea1n t\u1edbi h\u1ebft n\u0103m 2024, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi khi m\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 40% t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/p>\n

Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c<\/strong>. Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea1o l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 2 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. El Nino trong c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2023 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2024 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o l\u00ean cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp gi\u00fap gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh. Trong 4 th\u00e1ng 2024, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t 3.23 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, t\u0103ng 11.7% v\u1edbi 2.08 t\u1ef7 USD<\/span>, t\u0103ng 36.5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 2023. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y nh\u1edd gi\u00e1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea1o b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea1t 644 USD\/t\u1ea5n, t\u0103ng 22.2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 2023. Theo B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 2024 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 43 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n. V\u1edbi s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u h\u01a1n 8 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3i v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ea5p thi\u1ebft v\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 100 tri\u1ec7u d\u00e2n Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Tuy v\u1eady, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c t\u1ea1i mi\u1ec1n Nam, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a \u00edt \u0111ang l\u00e0m t\u0103ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n v\u00f9ng \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng s\u00f4ng C\u1eedu Long, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi di\u1ec7n t\u00edch gieo tr\u1ed3ng l\u00faa t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/strong>. Nh\u00f3m l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 25% trong r\u1ed5 CPI<\/a> c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m li\u00ean quan, gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m c\u0169ng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u1edbn cho \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a CPI<\/span> th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. Th\u00e1ng 4\/2024, CPI<\/span> c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4.4% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 2023. V\u00ec v\u1eady, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y (n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c), v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u01b0a b\u00e3o trong c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y CPI<\/span> l\u00ean cao, qua \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u0129 m\u00f4 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u00e1 g\u1ea1o t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/p>\n


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Ngu\u1ed3n: ADB<\/p>\n

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\n<\/table>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: ADB<\/p>\n

An ninh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/strong> V\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 6\/2023, c\u00e1c t\u1ec9nh ph\u00eda B\u1eafc c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam, n\u01a1i \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01a1 s\u1edf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI l\u1edbn bao g\u1ed3m Samsung v\u00e0 Foxconn, \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec7n. M\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n l\u00e0 do thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n, ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p \u0111i\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh \u1edf mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc, v\u00ec n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n do El Ni\u00f1o g\u00e2y ra \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn n\u01b0\u1edbc trong c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 ch\u1ee9a c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp l\u1edbn \u1edf mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u1ebft. T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m khi m\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n d\u1ea7n tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng \u0111ang t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00e2y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2y truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1ea1ch gi\u00fap c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n cung \u1ee9ng gi\u1eefa mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc v\u00e0 mi\u1ec1n Nam. Tuy nhi\u00ean, r\u1ee7i ro n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng do El Ni\u00f1o g\u00e2y ra c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd h\u01a1n, v\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ngu\u1ed3n c\u1ea7u nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9, ch\u00e2u \u00c2u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n.<\/p>\n

Chu Tu\u1ea5n Phong<\/a><\/p>\n

FILI<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n